Universitas Indonesia Conferences, The Seventh International Conference on Strategic and Global Studies 2023

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Applying Game Theory to the United States-China Relations (US Dollar-China Yuan Game)
Ari Wibowo

Last modified: 2023-05-05

Abstract


In the Dollar-Yuan game, strategies of each player include accusation, protectionism and negotiation, and devaluation of money. Protectionism ends in a trade war and money devaluation ends in a currency war. The study uses qualitative research methods as well as empirical research methods with descriptive analysis techniques. The main finding of this research is that the trade war and negotiation are a brake for preventing the currency war because the consequences of the trade war and its spread speed will be much lower than those of the currency war. Besides, in the trade war, only two countries are involved, and other countries may benefit from that but in the currency war, competitive devaluation of money spreads everywhere like dominoes and its result will make the global economy depressed. In other words, the trade war is a sort of hostility between two countries, but the currency war will raise the alarm for the whole economy of the world. When a country weakens its currency to devaluate its debts or reinforce exports compared to other countries, it can be said that the country has entered a total currency war with the world because it not only impoverishes the neighboring countries but also gets better results in exports with its trade partners. In a trade war, the US enjoys first mover advantage when its protectionist border tariffs are reciprocated by China at similar levels due to the greater trade volume of imports from China relative to its exports. Thus, there is credibility to the US administration’s protectionist threats. The capacity of China to retaliate with sector-targeted protectionism to inflict more asymmetric losses on the US, however, makes deterrence credible if it can threaten to escalate the trade war and raise costs.