Universitas Indonesia Conferences, International Accounting Conference - 2017

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The Upside and Downside of Hedged Commodities: Empirical Analysis of GARCH(1,1) Value-at-Risk
Rangga Handika, Oskar Vitriano, Muthia Pramesti

Last modified: 2017-07-26

Abstract


This paper investigates the risk measure and return impacts of eight financialized commodities. We compare VaR accuracy between unhedged commodity and hedged commodity. Using GARCH(1,1) VaR estimate, we find that hedged commodities have less percentage of VaR violations over unhedged commodities. We also examine how the VaR accuracy affects daily return. We find that the magnitude of VaR accuracy is lower in hedged commodities. Overall, hedging in commodity markets improves VaR accuracy but has lower impact of the return. Therefore, we can conclude that a hedged commodity has better risk measurement and rewards lower return for the accuracy of risk measurement. This is another risk and return postulate in the financialized commodity markets.


Keywords


Commodity markets, Value-at-Risk, Portfolio, Hedging

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