ABSTRACT

This study examines the determinants of migration to West Sumatera Province. Employing a modified gravity model and using data from Statistics Indonesia (Gross Regional Domestic Product/GDP, Employment, Human Development Index, the Indonesia Censuses of 2010, and the Intercensal Survey of 2015), this study explores the extent to which macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, unemployment rate, education attainment) affect migration flows to West Sumatera. The results of this study found that GDP at origin are significant drivers of migration flows, while unemployment rate in West Sumatera are pull factors of migration flows. Not in line with previous studies which found that migration flows was mainly directed toward more developed regions, evidence of the impact of GDP on West Sumatera and the unemployment rate in the area of origin is weak. This has shown that the economic attractiveness of the province of West Sumatera is not a major determinant of the flow of migration. Another factors that influce the flow of migration to West Sumatera are the positive effect of the level of education both in the origin and destination the size of population at origin and destination, and the negative effect of distance.

Type of Paper: Case Study

Keywords: migration; gravity model; per capita GDP; unemployment rate; West Sumatera