Universitas Indonesia Conferences, Asia Pacific Business and Economics Conference

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EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL CRISIS IN ASEAN COUNTRIES
Nuning Tri Hadmini, Telisa Aulia Falianty

Last modified: 2017-12-22

Abstract


This paper will  analyze the determinant of financial crisis, which involve the exchange rate, banking and debt crisis, in 6 ASIAN countries, using Fixed Effect Panel Logit Model. The results show that export growth, foreign exchange reserves and the ratio of M2 to foreign reserves have the significant impact toward exchange rates crisis.    Export growth has a negative impact on crisis, where the decline in exports will reduce foreign exchange reserves,  so resulting in increased exchange rate pressure. Indonesia suffered the most severe crisis was followed by Thailand and Korea.  While in the banking crisis, loans, money market rate, and riel interest rates have a positive relationship with the banking crisis, and Thailand performing the deepest. Three factors affecting the debt crisis are the debt rescheduling that indicates the financial fragility of a country to meet their debt obligations,  the growth of GDP per capita, and the growth of private savings.

The contribution of this paper is to identifying what variables from the external sector, financial sector and the real sector affecting  exchange rate crisis, banking and debt crisis, so the information can be used as an early warning system  of the financial crisis.


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